Greetings.
To derive profit from the huge river of gambling money flowing through the world, one either has to be a bookie, or beat the bookie. The bookie, the Man, always plays the game to his advantage over the player. Favorites lay big points, cost big vigs on the money line. The player always works uphill to grind out the profit. The games themselves have random outcomes, so recreational players & those playing with no rules are destined to lose to greed, complacency, & the neverending mathematical edge the Man holds over your picks.
Play the game long enough & you'll eventually see the randomness of the games. Luck can rescue you, kill you, or both on the last play of the game. However amongst the storm of randomness lies the pockets of opportunity where the intelligent player makes his profit. These opportunities arise when the player sees discrepancies between the fundamentals on the playing field & the lines, lines created by perception.
Darth Fader pulls money from the rivers of gambling cash by locating the moments when the public is too much in love with a play. I am a hunter of FALSE FAVORITES. This is my method to come up with plays on a daily basis:
-as the season rolls along, create a tracking list of false favorites, teams that are generally favored but have a flat or losing record ATS. Update the list regularly, as teams change over time with injuries & motivation.
- read the RX message boards & find threads that are hyping a particular play, possibly one of your false favorites. Search for the standard jinx lingo, such as lock, play of year, guaranteed, all in.
-Identify posters who base picks on conformity, sharp money rumors & the motion of lines. Players that don't base their bets on the games themselves tend towards bad luck. follow up on the posts of bad players & find places to fade their plays.
-go to wagerline.com & identify all the plays that less than 50% of the consensus supports. Limit your selections to teams that are shunned by the public. Occasionally the public is shunning a good team for a false favorite. Once in a blue moon a championship team from last season is being shunned for the flavor of the month.
-look carefully at the rare games when the wagerline consensus is on the side of the team getting the points. 90% of the time the public is on the favorite, not the dog ATS. The public is not sophisticated enough to know when & why to take the points, they tend to prefer false favorites over strong ones. The man puts a line on a favorite partly because the team is better, so trust the man over the player when the player wants to take the points. This is the only & best spot to lay points.
-limit dog plays to teams that can win the game outright. Just because the public piles on one side doesn't mean they're always wrong. The public wins when the dog is a piss ass poodle. The public loses when the dog is a pit bull. Look at all the fundamentals of a game, & play the game only if your play can win outright. That's your only defense & hope that your team, defender of your money, will play well. Taking end of year dogs that packed it in is a losing idea. Low quality teams = low quality outcomes.
-limit plays to full games. Don't play halves, quarters, parlays or any play requiring more than 1 pick to win. These plays expose the player to excessive random risk. Random risk is part of the game, but is reduced by handicapping & selecting plays based on the fundamentals. A full game averages out the random moments that happen during the game, & eventually the fundamentals prevail.
-wait until the just before game-time to lay your bet. Make sure location, weather, starting lineups are accounted for. Betting opening lines a day or more in advance creates un-necessary downside risks like practice time injuries, unexpected roster shifts & unfavorable weather. These can be avoided by being patient. You can buy back points if you need to hit a number. Don't let line moves influence if or when to select a play. Line moves are not typically based on a change in the game & are intended to psyche you out.
-buy the half point. The half point is the Man's ultimate weapon used against you, his way of showing he is not your friend, he is not rooting for you. Nothing is worse than losing a bet by a friggin half point. It's a stealth tactic, intended for you to see the number as smaller than it really is. Always buy the fucking half point. Buy more points if you can, give yourself a bigger edge.
-recognize that teams don't play to cover lines. They just wanna win. This is the key why laying points is bad for the player & good for the bookie. Laying points, you get exposed to garbage time & the diabolical back door cover. Taking points gives you a chance to win on the back side, gives you a win when the team you bet on loses the game. Taking big points shortens the time to cover, you only need 3/4 of a game to lock in a victory. When the favorite falters early laying a huge line, often that line is toasted. Easy money. Always lean to taking points.
-every day creates new wagering plays. Narrow the focus of your selections to ongoing trends. Is there a favorite that seems to be faltering or plays inconsistent? A dog that keeps coming up on your radar & keeps covering ATS, is that actually a good team? Recognize emerging trends early & ride waves of streaks.
-look at the key fundamentals for things the public is not perceiving. Turnovers, defense, 3rd down conversions, ERA's, field goal percentages are things the public doesn't follow. Bet on teams that are executing well & the public is ignoring it.
-The best dogs are dogs with strong defense. Defense cannot be defined in a point spread. When teams have great defense & no offense, like the 2005 Bears, they never lay points based only on the defense. Great defense always beats great offense, & keeps those favorites from scoring the points needed to beat your spread.
- set a limit on the risk to your bankroll & base the amount you risk on what you can lose. 5% of your bankroll is a good limit for 1 play. You will learn the hard way that going all in doesn't work for long in sports. If you wanna play 5 games in a day, select a max loss & divide the risk to your favorite picks, but don't lose sight of what you'll lose.
-Don't chase losses. The psychology of the loss short circuits your judgement & luck always screws you in this spot. Take a week off after a big loss to prevent the loss from clouding your judgement. Understand there are always more great plays in the future.
-develop patience, allow the plays to come to you. Discover that doing nothing is better than screwing up. There is value to doing nothing. If you play every single day, the psychology of the recent past interferes with your judgement. You lose 3 in a row & pass on a good play out of fear. You play for action instead of winning, & end up losing. When a card has no plays, don't play.
-the only way you'll win is using your brain, being patient, sober, setting loss limits, & taking risks in absence of fear & complacency. Otherwise your money is paying for the nice car your bookie is driving.
Darth Fader's creed...the harder I work, the luckier I get
To derive profit from the huge river of gambling money flowing through the world, one either has to be a bookie, or beat the bookie. The bookie, the Man, always plays the game to his advantage over the player. Favorites lay big points, cost big vigs on the money line. The player always works uphill to grind out the profit. The games themselves have random outcomes, so recreational players & those playing with no rules are destined to lose to greed, complacency, & the neverending mathematical edge the Man holds over your picks.
Play the game long enough & you'll eventually see the randomness of the games. Luck can rescue you, kill you, or both on the last play of the game. However amongst the storm of randomness lies the pockets of opportunity where the intelligent player makes his profit. These opportunities arise when the player sees discrepancies between the fundamentals on the playing field & the lines, lines created by perception.
Darth Fader pulls money from the rivers of gambling cash by locating the moments when the public is too much in love with a play. I am a hunter of FALSE FAVORITES. This is my method to come up with plays on a daily basis:
-as the season rolls along, create a tracking list of false favorites, teams that are generally favored but have a flat or losing record ATS. Update the list regularly, as teams change over time with injuries & motivation.
- read the RX message boards & find threads that are hyping a particular play, possibly one of your false favorites. Search for the standard jinx lingo, such as lock, play of year, guaranteed, all in.
-Identify posters who base picks on conformity, sharp money rumors & the motion of lines. Players that don't base their bets on the games themselves tend towards bad luck. follow up on the posts of bad players & find places to fade their plays.
-go to wagerline.com & identify all the plays that less than 50% of the consensus supports. Limit your selections to teams that are shunned by the public. Occasionally the public is shunning a good team for a false favorite. Once in a blue moon a championship team from last season is being shunned for the flavor of the month.
-look carefully at the rare games when the wagerline consensus is on the side of the team getting the points. 90% of the time the public is on the favorite, not the dog ATS. The public is not sophisticated enough to know when & why to take the points, they tend to prefer false favorites over strong ones. The man puts a line on a favorite partly because the team is better, so trust the man over the player when the player wants to take the points. This is the only & best spot to lay points.
-limit dog plays to teams that can win the game outright. Just because the public piles on one side doesn't mean they're always wrong. The public wins when the dog is a piss ass poodle. The public loses when the dog is a pit bull. Look at all the fundamentals of a game, & play the game only if your play can win outright. That's your only defense & hope that your team, defender of your money, will play well. Taking end of year dogs that packed it in is a losing idea. Low quality teams = low quality outcomes.
-limit plays to full games. Don't play halves, quarters, parlays or any play requiring more than 1 pick to win. These plays expose the player to excessive random risk. Random risk is part of the game, but is reduced by handicapping & selecting plays based on the fundamentals. A full game averages out the random moments that happen during the game, & eventually the fundamentals prevail.
-wait until the just before game-time to lay your bet. Make sure location, weather, starting lineups are accounted for. Betting opening lines a day or more in advance creates un-necessary downside risks like practice time injuries, unexpected roster shifts & unfavorable weather. These can be avoided by being patient. You can buy back points if you need to hit a number. Don't let line moves influence if or when to select a play. Line moves are not typically based on a change in the game & are intended to psyche you out.
-buy the half point. The half point is the Man's ultimate weapon used against you, his way of showing he is not your friend, he is not rooting for you. Nothing is worse than losing a bet by a friggin half point. It's a stealth tactic, intended for you to see the number as smaller than it really is. Always buy the fucking half point. Buy more points if you can, give yourself a bigger edge.
-recognize that teams don't play to cover lines. They just wanna win. This is the key why laying points is bad for the player & good for the bookie. Laying points, you get exposed to garbage time & the diabolical back door cover. Taking points gives you a chance to win on the back side, gives you a win when the team you bet on loses the game. Taking big points shortens the time to cover, you only need 3/4 of a game to lock in a victory. When the favorite falters early laying a huge line, often that line is toasted. Easy money. Always lean to taking points.
-every day creates new wagering plays. Narrow the focus of your selections to ongoing trends. Is there a favorite that seems to be faltering or plays inconsistent? A dog that keeps coming up on your radar & keeps covering ATS, is that actually a good team? Recognize emerging trends early & ride waves of streaks.
-look at the key fundamentals for things the public is not perceiving. Turnovers, defense, 3rd down conversions, ERA's, field goal percentages are things the public doesn't follow. Bet on teams that are executing well & the public is ignoring it.
-The best dogs are dogs with strong defense. Defense cannot be defined in a point spread. When teams have great defense & no offense, like the 2005 Bears, they never lay points based only on the defense. Great defense always beats great offense, & keeps those favorites from scoring the points needed to beat your spread.
- set a limit on the risk to your bankroll & base the amount you risk on what you can lose. 5% of your bankroll is a good limit for 1 play. You will learn the hard way that going all in doesn't work for long in sports. If you wanna play 5 games in a day, select a max loss & divide the risk to your favorite picks, but don't lose sight of what you'll lose.
-Don't chase losses. The psychology of the loss short circuits your judgement & luck always screws you in this spot. Take a week off after a big loss to prevent the loss from clouding your judgement. Understand there are always more great plays in the future.
-develop patience, allow the plays to come to you. Discover that doing nothing is better than screwing up. There is value to doing nothing. If you play every single day, the psychology of the recent past interferes with your judgement. You lose 3 in a row & pass on a good play out of fear. You play for action instead of winning, & end up losing. When a card has no plays, don't play.
-the only way you'll win is using your brain, being patient, sober, setting loss limits, & taking risks in absence of fear & complacency. Otherwise your money is paying for the nice car your bookie is driving.
Darth Fader's creed...the harder I work, the luckier I get
